This blog was originally going to be about how so many Evangelicals I know are converting to Catholicism.
And then I looked at the actual stats.
Maybe it's just the circle I run in, but over the past few years it's felt like many of the Evangelicals I know, along with a growing number of public figures, were converting to Catholicism. I see it online, hear about it in conversations, and watch people who once defended Protestant theology now explaining why they've entered the Catholic Church. So I started asking myself how this was happening. What was leading people, particularly younger Evangelicals, to reconsider what they'd been taught about Catholicism?
Two things stood out.
1 - Comparison arguments no longer work
Have you ever heard someone say, “I could never belong to a church that has pedophiles in it”? Or perhaps, “I can no longer be part of a church that has so much corruption.” If you heard someone make that argument in the 1980s or 1990s, there’s a good chance they were referring to the Catholic Church.
The sexual abuse scandals, the failures of Church leadership, and centuries of historical accounts of corruption made the Catholic Church an easy target. For many Protestants, these were among the reasons they could never consider becoming Catholic. But something interesting has happened over the last several decades. That argument doesn't seem to carry quite the same weight it once did. Why? Because we're beginning to recognize something that should have been obvious all along: Satan doesn't limit his attacks to the Catholic Church. He goes after Christian leaders, pastors, priests, ministers, elders, and anyone in a position of spiritual authority. He exploits pride, greed, lust, power, and ambition. He takes advantage of human weakness and, sometimes, the very people entrusted with protecting the faithful become the ones who harm them.
And this isn't exclusive to Catholicism. We've seen sexual abuse, financial scandals, spiritual manipulation, and moral failures exposed in Protestant denominations, independent evangelical churches, megachurches, and virtually every corner of Christianity.
There's also a historical irony worth considering. For much of Christian history, the Catholic Church was the primary institutional expression of Christianity in the Western world. It had centuries to accumulate both tremendous accomplishments and tremendous failures. When Protestantism emerged, it eventually developed its own institutions, leadership structures, traditions, and, unfortunately, its own history of corruption. The Catholic Church's long history made it an easy target, but a longer history doesn't make an institution uniquely susceptible to evil.
2 - Arguments from authority no longer matter.
People don't care if you have a PhD if your argument is weak. In the past, apologists could tout their theological credentials, and those letters after their names carried considerable weight. Sometimes that alone was enough to convince an audience that they must be right.
No more.
The internet has changed the playing field. Anyone sitting in their living room can listen to debates, access original sources, and investigate theological arguments for themselves. A degree no longer wins an argument.
For generations, many Evangelicals were taught that Catholicism was a religion of works, man-made traditions, Mary worship, and a departure from biblical Christianity. But something happens when people actually investigate what Catholics believe. They can compare Catholic and Protestant understandings of salvation and apostolic succession, and discover what the early Church Fathers actually taught. Many were never given an accurate explanation of Catholic theology. They were given an explanation of why Catholicism was wrong. There's a difference. And when people begin discovering that some of what they've been told isn't quite accurate, it's difficult to put the toothpaste back in the tube.
Recently, a Protestant friend told me his study of history had actually strengthened his Protestant beliefs. When I asked what he'd been reading, I discovered his primary source was written by a staunchly anti-Catholic Protestant author––from the 1980’s. There's nothing wrong with reading opposing viewpoints, but shouldn't we at least consider the theological bias of the person telling the story?
History belongs, at least to some extent, to the teller, but I think younger generations are becoming more discerning. They want original sources, opposing arguments, and evidence. They want the truth, regardless of where it leads them. And that's a good thing.
So, are Evangelicals really swarming to Catholicism?
Here's where I made a critical, yet common, error. I formed my theory without first studying the data.
According to Pew Research Center's 2023–24 Religious Landscape Study, approximately 62% of American adults identify as Christian. That's down from 78% in 2007 and 71% in 2014.
Evangelical Protestants now make up approximately 23% of American adults, down from 26% in 2007.
Catholicism has also declined, from approximately 24% in 2007 to 19% today.
While looking up the data, I found that for every adult who becomes Catholic after being raised in another religious tradition, 8.4 adults who were raised Catholic no longer identify as Catholic. Catholicism is gaining converts, but it's losing even more people through religious switching, and Protestantism is experiencing a similar problem.
So what traditon of Christianity is the big winner?
None.
The religiously unaffiliated are people who identify as atheist, agnostic, or having no particular religious affiliation. Commonly called the "nones," they now represent approximately 29% of American adults, up from 16% in 2007.
Pew found that for every person who leaves the unaffiliated category and joins a religion, nearly six people move in the opposite direction. That's the bigger story. Christianity is losing people altogether.
America was founded in a culture heavily influenced by Christianity. But there's a difference between a nation having Christian roots and a nation actually living out Christian principles. America may still have churches on every corner, Bibles in hotel rooms, and politicians who invoke God in their speeches. But if we measure the spiritual condition of a nation by the number of people who actually practice the faith, the picture is considerably different. And I think we need to ask ourselves an uncomfortable question.
What does God allow to happen to a nation when that nation turns its back on Him?
Throughout the Old Testament, we see a recurring pattern. God calls His people to Himself. They follow Him for a time, become comfortable and prosperous, and eventually turn away. They embrace the surrounding culture and abandon His commandments. And eventually, there are consequences.
In Romans 1, Paul describes what happens when people reject God and exchange the truth for a lie. One of the most sobering parts of that passage is that God allows them to follow the desires they've chosen. He gives them over to the consequences of their rejection.
I'm not suggesting every political problem or cultural conflict is a direct punishment from God, America is not ancient Israel, but the larger biblical principle remains: Nations and people are not immune to the consequences of rejecting God.
So what does this mean for us?
The answer isn't simply to become more politically active, put Christian slogans on our bumper stickers, or complain about how far our country has fallen. The answer begins with us. Our families, our churches, and our communities. It means raising our children to know Christ, understanding what we believe and why, and being willing to have difficult conversations with people who disagree with us.
As a Catholic, I certainly hope more Evangelicals discover the richness of the Catholic faith, but I also hope more Catholics become serious about their own faith. We have no room to celebrate someone else's conversion while ignoring the fact that our own children, grandchildren, and neighbors may be walking away from Christianity altogether.
Maybe the question we should be asking isn't whether Evangelicals are swarming to Catholicism. Maybe it's why so many Americans are walking away from Christ in the first place.
